A severe weather outbreak is likely across Southern Indiana today!

The SPC has placed us in a MODERATE RISK for severe weather today! This is an extremely dangerous situation and needs to be monitored closely.

Here’s what the radar looked like at 8:45am this morning. You can see a very dangerous squall line over Illinois. This will push slowly east through the day and will have damaging effects on our region.

Ahead of this main line of storms, supercells may develop. The NWS has issued a PDS Tornado Watch until 5pm for a large part of Indiana. A PDS Watch is rare, it stands for Particularly Dangerous Situation and is reserved for those situations where an outbreak is highly likely to occur.

This watch is for supercells that look to develop ahead of the main line. I believe almost all of the area will be under another Tornado Watch tonight as the main line moves through!

Instability is already starting to ramp up. 10am analysis from the Storm Prediction Center shows 500 units of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy – a measure of instability) over all of Southern Indiana. Some spots as high as 1,000 already. This will increase even more in the afternoon hours.

EHI (Energy Helicity Index) values are also high. This indicates the tornado threat. Everyone is already at 1 and portions of the area are a 2 or 3! A reading of 1-5 indicates EF2 or EF3 tornadoes are most certainly possible.

We also have a very powerful Low Level Jet above us. 60-70 knot winds on this chart would be 70-80mph winds about 1500ft above our heads! That’s some strong fuel for tornadic storms.

So let’s talk about timing. I do think we’ll see a chance of some supercells developing today ahead of the main line, but let’s look at the main line itself as that will be the main threat for most of us. Models vary on timing unfortunately!

HRRR (High Resoultion Rapid Refresh – best high res short term model we have) – 6pm

4km High Resolution NAM – 8pm

RAP (Rapid Refresh) – 8pm

So I think sometime after dinner is a safe bet. I don’t think this is going to be an overnight event. 6-8pm looks to be the sweet spot for the line to hit the Indiana/Illinois border in the Evansville area. Then it will be another 3-4 hours to cross Indiana before exiting into Ohio. So we should hopefully be in the clear for all the area by midnight. Hopefully anyway! If this line slows down, we could be in for a long night. Not looking that way as of when this post is being written.

Now is the time to have a tornado safety plan in action for your home! Make sure you have batteries in your NOAA weather radio in case the power goes out. Make sure you have it turned on as well! Get a flashlight handy if the power goes out. Know where you will go if a tornado warning is issued!

Here are some safety tips to remember:

As always, I’ll be monitoring the situation and providing you with up to date data. I update Facebook and Twitter often. Be sure to like those pages to keep up to date! And check out our new website for even more great information, including a full 7 day forecast updated every morning!

It looks like we are finally starting to break out of the cold pattern we have been in for nearly two months now! Since February 15th we have been in a blocking pattern that has kept us well below normal on most days. In fact, only 15 of the past 49 days have been normal or above normal in temperature. That means 34 of the last 49 were below normal and many of them well below! That’s 69% of the past 49 days we’ve been in the deep freeze!

But the pattern is starting to change…finally! Check out the NAO index that I have referred to often over the past few months. Remember this measures the blocking ability in the North Atlantic Ocean. When it’s negative (below the black dashed line in the middle) that means a blocking pattern can set up and that drives cooler weather our way in the winter time. You can see it’s been negative for a long time now with some spikes being well below normal and those represent our coldest spurts. The red lines are the model predictions of where the index is heading. Notice it’s trending neutral or positive on most models. That’s a good thing – that means the blocking pattern is weakening and a warm up can occur!

Check out the temperature forecast for the next 6-10 days. We’re right on the normal to above normal outlook. Keep in mind that normal this time of the year is the low 60s. I’ll take it!

But with the warm up also comes the chances for severe weather once again. And the models are starting to hint at the first taste of severe weather could be on April 10th. A powerful cold front will push through the area on the 10th. Ahead of that front we’ll be very warm.

GFS has us close to 70 degrees that day!

But the temperature will be a result of very warm, moist air being advected in from the south. Check out the winds up around 18,000 feet!

That is really going to pump moist air our way. Dewpoints will soar into the 60s as a result.

Now combine those dewpoints and warm temperatures with some instability in the atmosphere and you have the recipe for potential severe weather. So let’s look at instability. Here is the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values for Wednesday. This is a measure of how much potential there is for severe weather in regards to instability. Values aren’t off the charts, but we’re in the 250-700 range and that’s enough for some severe potential.

Lifted Index shows some decent numbers as well. Not overly impressive, but certainly enough to justify the potential for severe weather.

The real story here is the bulk shear! These are some very powerful numbers! Shear refers to the change in direction of the wind as you move up the atmosphere. Here we look at the speed of the shear. This is definitely capable of producing severe weather.

So the real question we need to look at is how reliable is this data? Keep in mind we are still five days out from this scenario. A lot can change. The severe weather could end up going more south of us. Or it could hit us dead on. We’ll know more in coming days.

But for now it’s something to keep an eye on. The National Weather Service has already placed parts of the area under a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday. We’ll see if this gets expanded. Again, the potential is there and it’s something to keep an eye on.

As always, I’ll be monitoring the situation and providing you with up to date data. I update Facebook and Twitter often. Be sure to like those pages to keep up to date! And check out our new website for even more great information, including a full 7 day forecast updated every morning!

Winter weather is on the way! Winter Weather Advisories are out for all of Southern Indiana. Stay up to date with the latest on our Facebook and Twitter accounts.

For now, nice weather has spoiled us today! The temp rose all the way to 64 today in Huntingburg and in the 70s near Louisville! Our 30-year average temp is 53 today. So we were well above normal for once. Unfortunately that won’t last very long, snow is on the way!

Before we dive into the snow problems, I also want to note that the Climate Prediction Center has placed us in a 70% chance area of being well below normal for our temps over the next 6-10 days. So the cold weather is here to stick around for awhile!

The big story tonight and tomorrow will be the chance of snow after a 70 degree day! This has caught many people off guard, but it’s actually something that some of the European models were hinting at earlier in the week. The American models have just started to catch on with today’s model runs. If you follow us on Facebook, way back on March 11th I noted that the EURO model was hinting at a fairly decent snowstorm for early next week, but the GFS was saying all rain. That changed with this morning’s model runs. The GFS is now on-board with the EURO for some decent accumulations.

So how much can we expect? Model guidance is all over the place with this setup. Let’s break it down and then I’ll give you my thoughts. First the NAM. It’s not aggressive at all, very minor accumulations.

Then we have the GFS. Very aggressive on accumulations! Probably just a bit over-aggressive if you ask me. I really don’t see anyone getting the 8″ in the dark blue.

EURO also shows decent accumulations. Again, maybe just a bit too aggressive for me with the broad swath of 6″ totals.

I do think the chance exists for some sizable accumulations for some people. I also think the chance exists for a MAJOR BUST in the forecast! Nonetheless, I’ve went with a mix of the GFS/EURO models for my forecast. NAM is too light. In general, I think 2-4″ of heavy, wet snow can be expected in the area I’ve highlighted. Isolated 5″+ amounts possible, but these will be very scattered in nature and will depend on getting some heavy snow bands to set up.

Because of all this, the National Weather Service offices have Winter Weather Advisories out for almost all of Southern Indiana. These begin at 5am EDT and last until 7pm Sunday. Area in green are under a Flood Warning, but are also part of the winter advisory.

NAM future radar shows a big area of snow moving into Southern Indiana by 4am. Some of this may start as sleet before changing to all snow.

RAP future radar for 4am is very similar.

As for impacts on travel, I don’t expect travel to be a major problem at this point on treated surfaces. Air temps look to hang in the low to mid 30s on Sunday and with traffic on the treated major roadways, those should be fine. But secondary roads and untreated surfaces most certainly could have some problems.

I should also note that there will be a very sharp cutoff where the rain/snow line is. It won’t be uncommon to have 4″ of snow in one spot and just twenty miles down the road to only see a dusting or even all rain. As of right now, the models are putting this sharp cutoff around the Dubois/Spencer county line. I’ll have a much better idea once the radar starts lighting up with snow and I get some snow reports in.

Timing does look to start in the overnight hours, so be careful on the way to church tomorrow, as the system might already be underway for many of you. It should be over late afternoon. At any rate, the snow won’t last long. We’re into the 50s on Monday with a solid shot at thunderstorms in the area. Such is the joy of weather in the Ohio Valley!

Here is the NWS wording for the Winter Weather Advisory for those interested:
TIMING: SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY LASTING INTO THE EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL SNOW LONG ENOUGH AND HARD ENOUGH DESPITE SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR.

* OTHER IMPACTS: HEAVILY TRAVELLED ROADWAYS MAY NOT BE IMPACTED THROUGH THIS EVENT…HOWEVER UNTREATED SIDE ROADS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED IN SPOTS.

As always, I’ll be monitoring the situation and providing you with up to date data. I update Facebook and Twitter often. Be sure to like those pages to keep up to date! And check out our new website for even more great information, including a full 7 day forecast updated every morning!

We are settling into a very ugly pattern here in the Ohio Valley! The rain that we saw on Tuesday will changeover to light snow showers and flurries virtually the rest of the week. Some minor accumulations could be expected with this system.

A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over the North Atlantic has basically shut the Atlantic Ocean down and it’s telling all storms that come near it that it’s closed for business! That means we’ll see this low pressure that’s causing all this precipitation linger in our area for several more days!

GFS has the atmosphere cooled down enough tomorrow to change it to all snow. It looks light but some banding could set up and some areas could get some quick, minor accumulations.

I could show more graphics, but all you would see is the low inching toward the coast and snow showers for us every day until Sunday. Wednesday looks to be the most intense of the snow showers. Probably just very light snow showers and flurries the rest of the week form the way it’s looking.

NAM future radar for tomorrow afternoon does have some fairly heavy snow bands in our area, shown in the green color. If this verifies, some areas could see a quick inch or two. So keep an eye on the radar tomorrow afternoon. This certainly ins’t a winter weather advisory type of situation, but it could cause some slow traffic and even a few accidents for those drivers that aren’t watching what they are doing!

After this system finally moves out of here on Sunday, we’ll keep in a cold patter for the next two weeks from the way it’s looking! GFS shown below has another potential winter storm for us on March 5th. EURO disagrees and takes this low a bit further north and west of us, bringing all rain. Way too early to tell if this will turn out or not, but something to keep an eye on for sure!

Remember to bookmark our website for updated 7 day forecasts every day! My apologies if you came to the site this morning. The forecast didn’t get updated until later in the day. I’ve come down with a sinus infection and have been out of my element today.

A pretty nice weekend is on tap for us in the Ohio Valley area. Still a bit cold, but bright sunshine will make the low 40s tolerable once again! It will be on Monday that our next chance for significant weather arrives. And it arrives just as a blocking pattern is kicking into high gear.

Let’s look at our old friends the indices. It’s been awhile since I’ve posted these, so I’ll explain for those of you that aren’t familiar with them.

First, the AO (Arctic Oscillation). Dashed line is neutral. Red lines are the predicted trends, multiple lines because this represents multiple models producing a forecast. Notice that it’s negative right now and it’s going to stay that way – that’s what snow lovers want. It means cold air is available for the Ohio Valley.

Then we have the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Notice that it’s also negative and will stay that way. A negative NAO indicates a blocking pattern in the Atlantic Ocean. This forces storms to stay for an extended period of time in our area. As a fellow meteorologist puts it, a negative NAO means the Atlantic is closed for business.

Finally we have the PNA (Pacific North American Teleconnection). It’s positive and will stay that way. Positive PNA means that cold air is on the move into our area and it will stay there when it gets here…until something changes the PNA to more neutral or negative.

These indices will greatly affect our outcome next week. And it looks like another monster of a storm coming in! Thankfully, I don’t see any icy precipitation for us like the last one. But the Great Plains are going to get hammered with yet another major snowstorm. Some places that already got a foot of snow are looking at yet another foot of snow!

GFS for 1am on Tuesday shows heavy rain bands moving into our area. It’s already been raining here at this point for quite a bit. Notice the heavy snow on the backside of the low. Normally in a setup like this, we’d see this pass by pretty quickly and it’d be out of the area by late Tuesday. Not so this time because of the blocking pattern.

GFS for 1pm on Wednesday. Storm is still around in the area! Notice that the low has weakened considerably. It was 987mb and now down to 993mb. Still a fairly strong system, but weakening. What’s happening is the upper level low is starting to dominate instead.

Here’s a view of the upper levels of the atmosphere at the time – 500mb level or about 18,000 feet up. The upper low is really the dominant feature now and notice the strong winds shown over us. That’s some pretty strong lift to force some snow showers over us!

What we’ll see next week is a snowstorm out of the ordinary for us. Normally the surface low moves on and we see just a small amount of snow on the back side of the system as it moves past. This system just sits in the region and spins over the area for a few days. That means the atmosphere will cool from the top down. Temps at the surface will take awhile to really cool enough for snow to stick, at least during the daytime anyway. But if we see some snow showers during the nighttime, we could easily see some snow accumulation from this.

And the accumulations won’t come all in one fell swoop like normal. It will come over a period of a few days! It won’t be out of question with this type of setup to see an inch or so each day from this. And given the dynamics in the upper levels, some convective snow showers during the daytime might be possible, but accumulations there might be limited due to the temps above freezing. Remember last week when we saw four inches of snow during a couple hours in some areas? It didn’t last long, but it caused temporary problems. That was convective snow and that’s what we might see from this system.

When can we expect these snow showers? Monday looks fine for just rain, but later in the day on Tuesday I think we might see the transition to off and on snow showers. And those snow shower chances will last on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday! And actually, the pattern doesn’t look to break anytime soon. So next week could just be a nasty week for us. The wind will also be a story worth noting. It looks breezy almost every day next week, winds from 10-15mph common.

Just when will this yucky pattern break? Look at the GFS for next Sunday the 3rd. Notice this system is still sticking around and causing snow showers for the area! Talk about annoying! GFS indicates March 5th before this system finally moves off shore.

EURO model moves it off just a bit faster, as does the GEM. If this pattern holds out, we’re in for a nasty week next week!

Here’s the BUFKIT view for the GFS next week. Just to give you a visual idea of precipitation type. Green is rain, blue is snow. Days are at the bottom. You read this from right to left. Snow chances kick in overnight on Tuesday and last all through the end of this model view and then beyond really. As I’ve said several times now, a nasty week in store!

As always, I’ll be monitoring the situation throughout the week and providing you with up to date data. I update Facebook andTwitter often. Be sure to like those pages to keep up to date! And check out our new website for even more great information, including a full 7 day forecast updated every morning!

Enjoy the weekend while it lasts! This beautiful sunshine is gone by Monday.

A very nasty day is setting up for Thursday evening in the Ohio Valley area. It may not look like much right now, but that blob of blue over Utah and Colorado you see on infrared satellite below is going to bring a serious mess to us!

Winter storm warnings and advisories are already popping up to our west. Some areas can expect to see multiple inches of snow from this event. For us, ice will be the main threat. Gibson and Posey counties in Indiana are already under a Winter Weather Advisory. I expect more will come soon.

The models have slowed down the start of the precipitation a bit from yesterday. GFS at 7pm on Thursday brings the start of the wintry mix into the area.

By 10pm the activity picks up.

GFS at 1am the ice has pushed farther north and it transitions to all rain in the lower part of Southern Indiana.

By 7am Friday morning, rain is starting to end in our western portions. Ice still continues from the Bedford areas and north. Those areas won’t see any changeover to non-freezing precipitation.

Obviously the morning commute on Friday is going to be very difficult in some areas. Points closer to the Ohio River will fare much better, as the rising temperatures overnight due to the warm front pushing in will melt some of the accumulated ice and the non-freezing rain may wash some of it away. I wouldn’t rule out slick spots, though. I expect major road issues from Bedford and points north where the changeover to non-freezing precipitation never occurs. This areas are in for a rough start to the day!

Here’s what you can expect for Thursday. Areas in the icing possible category will most likely just see a glazing of ice, while areas in the icing likely category could see some significant icing problems of up to 0.25″.

The one saving grace we might have is the start to the day we’ll have on Thursday. We’ll see some sunshine during the morning hours. That will help to warm us up a bit during the daytime. My forecast high for Huntingburg tomorrow is 34 as of right now. It will be less the farther north you travel. If we can keep the sun around long enough that the temps rise into the mid 30s above the expected high, that could help stop some of the icing that will happen. But that’s a long shot at this point. Since the precipitation is expected to start after 6 or 7pm on Thursday, we will likely be below freezing at that point if our high is only 34. If we warm a bit past 34, we might hold above freezing a bit longer and reduce the amount of ice we get.

Here’s an overview of what you can expect for Thursday.

As always, I’ll be monitoring the situation throughout the day and updating Facebook and Twitter often. Be sure to like us on those pages to keep up to date! And check out our new website for even more great information, including a full 7 day forecast updated every morning!

Much to talk about with this update, so I’ll get right to it. I’m tracking a major winter storm that will be ejecting out of the southern Rockies on Thursday. The models are indicating a storm system that means business!

GFS for 7pm on Thursday (below) shows a pretty intense low moving through the central plains states. This will bring ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up through the Ohio Valley.

The precipitation type is still in question at this point. The GFS indicates a wintry mix (yellow) for us with snow to the north and rain to the south, even some freezing rain (red) to the west. My confidence in the forecast track of this system is pretty low right now. I’d like to see this stay consistent for another few model runs to really give some major weight to precipitation type. We are on the border in this model run and a change in track of just 50 miles could major impact what we get under this scenario!

So really, the question we need to ask is two-fold: what is the temperature when it starts to precipitate and how long will it take to saturate the air? We’ll certainly be cold enough on Thursday morning to have all snow if the precipitation can get here in time and the air saturates fast enough. Overnight lows on Thursday morning should be around 22.

But it will be dry at that time. Dewpoints will only be in the teens, as you can see on the map below. That dry air will need to be saturated before any snow/ice/rain can fall. So how early the precipitation arrives and what the temps are will be critical to determining what we get.

It looks right now that the column will saturate sometime in the afternoon hours. Right now the GFS indicates a temp of very close to freezing at the initial start time of the precipitation. That would indicate a rain/snow/sleet mix or possibly some freezing rain. But this model run also warms things up into the 40s that evening, which would do some melting of any ice we get unless the ice is significant. As I said, a change in track just 50 miles to the south for this thing could really secure something significant for us.

Worthy of note is that the GFS does like the idea of some snow accumulation on Thursday. It spits out a healthy 1-4″ for Southern Indiana, with 6″ amounts (yellow) in Southern Illinois. I’m not sure I would take my faith in this setup this far out, but it indicates to us that it is something worth watching very closely!

After a rather cold day yesterday with some heavy snow squalls for some of us in Southern Indiana, Valentine’s Day will be a much nicer day. Skies will start to clear out and give way to some nice sunshine by mid-afternoon as temperatures will soar to the low 50s with some breezy winds.

Friday will be a different story. In fact, Friday looks like it just might possibly be a repeat of what we saw on Wednesday – only roads might be worse as the temperatures will be much colder!

Here’s the setup: a strong cold front will push through the area overnight tonight. That will return us to a a northerly flow for our winds and it will also usher in some much colder air tomorrow. We’ll dip down to near freezing or just below tonight and we’ll have a hard time recovering much tomorrow, as high temperatures won’t get out of the 30s!

Notice the yellow arrow I’ve drawn on the map above. This represents winds at about 18,000ft above the ground (the 500mb level for my fellow weather nerds). We’ll be on the upward slope of a fairly large trough in the winds. This little upper-level disturbance will cause just enough rising motion in the atmosphere that I believe we’ll see some fairly significant snow squalls/showers develop on Friday.

Future radar indicates this. Here’s the NAM future radar at 8am Friday. Notice some intense snow bands forming over Illinois and pushing into Southern Indiana.

By 11am those snow bands have overtaken much of Southern Indiana.

2pm has the intense bands pushing off to the east with lingering snow showers in the area.

5pm still a few lingering snow showers around, but most of the significant snow out of the area.

Take this with a grain of salt. The NAM has been aggressive in its snow forecasts this winter and hasn’t been the most reliable, but it’s the only future radar I can show you this far out. Later tonight/tomorrow morning I can post the HRRR and RAP future radars which are better quality/higher resolution/more reliable. Nonetheless, this does still suggest that we’ll need to watch out tomorrow morning as things could get rough real fast.

So how much can we expect? This is another tricky one to tell! Here’s a snow graph comparing the different models and you can see they vary widely. Red line is NAM and spits out an inch or two for the Evansville area if you add it all up. Solid blue line is GFS and you can see that it’s not nearly as aggressive with the snow.

I think it will really just depend on whether or not some intense snow bands set up tomorrow morning. If the snow showers are light, we can expect very minimal accumulations. But if we get some heavy snow bands set up that take us by surprise (which is exactly what happened on Wednesday morning), we could see a couple of inches or more easily.

I’m going to go with a mix of the two.  I think up to an inch for all of Southern Indiana is pretty safe, but the models are suggesting that points closer to New Albany and Madison could see a bit heavier snowfall. So 1-2″ in that circled area is not out of question and really it’s not out of question for any of us if heavier bands set up. But the circled area is the most likely area for those larger accumulations. I’ll update this graphic as needed and repost on the Facebook page, so stay tuned there for updates.

The snow will come to an end on Friday evening and we’ll dry out overnight, but another system will push through the area of Saturday, bringing with it another chance for some snow showers/flurries. This one does not look as significant, but I’ll be monitoring it and post updates.

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Upcoming Snow Risks:
1) Wed
2) Feb 16/17

Wednesday
Two systems could bring us some snow in the next week, but really neither of these systems are that impressive. The first one arrives on Wednesday and it will be a light event at best … if it even snows.

It will all depend on some energy building in the SW portion of the US. This energy will move south along the border with Mexico and meet up with a stalled cold front near the Atlantic coast. It will then ride up this stalled front, up the coast. How quickly this piece of energy meets the stalled front will determine the strength of the system as it moves in our area.

GFS at 1pm on Wednesday shows the newly formed low very weak (only 1007mb) and moving up the stalled front. The 540 thickness line (blue line with 540 in it) cuts through Kentucky. The 540 line is usually the rain/snow changeover line, so in theory this should be all snow. But I’m not so sure it will be. This would be falling during the daytime, so any snow that falls would have to fight against daytime heating. I think temps will be right on the border with this system. You can see most of it stays in Kentucky with little impact on Southern Indiana in this model run anyway.

NAM is aggressive with the snow. Too aggressive. In fact, I’ve had a distrust for the NAM all winter. It has not performed well at all. So I’m not buying into this idea at all.

EURO reads the situation totally different. It takes the low well south of here and then out to sea. Not sure I buy its solution either, though it has performed quite well this winter so I won’t totally discount it.

My gut says the energy will meet up with the front and form a very weak low that tracks to the east of the Appalachian Mountains and brings us nothing snow wise. I’ve gone with a 30% chance of very cold rain for Wednesday. I’ll keep an eye on it and adjust as needed.

February 16/17
This is an upper-level disturbance that will pass through the area.

GFS at 7pm on the 16th. It will certainly be cold enough for snow. Very light snow breaks out over Illinois and Western Kentucky.

By 7am on the 17th, GFS has it over and pushed through already. So this would be an overnight event and it would be very quick. Looks like light accumulations at this point, but we’ll need to watch it. My guess this far out would be 1-3″ based on this model run. But this is way too far out to have any decent degree of accuracy.

The Climate Prediction Center has placed us in the 60% slot for chance of being below normal the next 6-10 days temp wise. All of the models indicate another cold blast coming in and this one looks to last for a few days instead of in and out quick like the last time.

A normal high for this time of the year is 41 and normal low is 21. So being below normal means pretty cold. GFS models still indicate that some highs will only be in the 20s! Looks like the 15th through the 19th is the cold time frame to watch out for.

Don’t forget that you can get the full 7 day forecast on our website now every day! Check it out at www.southernindianaweather.com. And be sure to follow us on Twitter. @SouthernINWx

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